September 15, 2006
More on Schaefer's defeat
Here's a little chart I cranked out on Tuesday's primary for the Maryland comptroller's race, it's derived from the one I ran yesterday.
| County | Percentage backing Schaefer |
| Somerset County | 50% |
| Garrett County | 47% |
| Worcester County | 45% |
| Allegany County | 44% |
| Dorchester County | 43% |
| Baltimore City | 41% |
| Washington County | 40% |
| Baltimore County | 39% |
| St. Mary's County | 38% |
| Harford County | 37% |
| Cecil County | 37% |
| Wicomico County | 37% |
| Carroll County | 34% |
| Caroline County | 34% |
| Queen Anne's County | 32% |
| Kent County | 31% |
| Charles County | 30% |
| Anne Arundel County | 30% |
| Talbot County | 29% |
| Calvert County | 28% |
| Frederick County | 26% |
| Howard County | 24% |
| Prince George's County | 21% |
| Montgomery County | 15% |
It shows what I expected to find: former governor and Baltimore Mayor William Donald Schaefer collapsed in Montgomery County, partly because of Peter Franchot's name recognition there, partly because of the governor's many recent gaffes, and perhaps mainly due to MoCo's increasing rejection of centrist Democratic thinking.
And these numbers may be bad news for current Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr.
This thread on the Baltimore Sun talk forum deals with a related issue, the number of Democrats who pulled the lever for other candidates, including Schaefer, but neglected to vote for Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley, who ran unopposed for the Democratic nomination for governor (this is considered a sign of dissatisfaction with O'Malley, but not on the levels of Dem apathy toward Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, who ran four years ago). I wrote:
My prediction: and I think it actually lines up with the numbers:The numbers in this thread show Dems in Baltimore City and surrounding areas rankled at O'Malley. Familiarity has bred contempt, most notably among other Dem officeholders, as well as regular folks.
HOWEVER, expect O'Malley's June 2004 attacks on the administration ("I'm more worried about the Bush administration than Al-Queda," to paraphrase) to play big in MoCo.
MoCo probably does not care about MOM's record in the city as much as his anti-Bush stance.
It is difficult news for Ehrlich if MoCo (and Frederick counties) have grown substantially in population and also gotten more liberal with more unionized federal workers. Take a look at Comptroller candidate Franchot's #s over Schaefer, county by county (I stuck the entire table two-third of the way down this link). Look at the MoCo number for Franchot, a liberal Dem. Unbelievable.
Thus the numbers game may be uphill no matter what MOM's actual record is and how well Ehrlich's centrism plays in Howard, Anne Arundel, Baltimore County, and the western and eastern edges of Maryland.
And don't forget MoCo kicking another liberal/centrist Republican, former U.S. rep Connie Morella, to the curb.
In other words: O'Malley can win despite his mixed record in Baltimore given that MoCo (and PG) can bulldoze him into office regardless of problematic aspects of his governing style.
Ha! As I write this, I am getting a recorded message from O'Malley inviting me to a Dem rally. Please, politicians, stop these unsolicited calls! No one wanted you to have an exemption from the do-not-call list except yourselves.
- posted by jbelliveau at 2:36 PM in The Neighborhood
