March 5, 2004
Maryland by the numbers
Here's an analysis of the Terps' problems by an actual statistician, Harry Davey, who describes himself as "a disgruntled Maryland fan":
A look at Maryland’s numbers – both overall and game-by-game – makes it clear why Maryland is struggling this year. In a number of games, Maryland has been overmatched in:
- field goal shooting
- three-point shooting
- free throw shooting
- and rebounding.
Field goals
Maryland’s field goal percentage of 44 is the worst in the Atlantic Coast Conference, except Clemson. Four teams in the conference have a shooting percentage of 47. Maryland is second in the conference in field goal attempts (1607) but sixth in the league in field goals made. Maryland’s three-point percentage of 33 is sixth in the league. Maryland is last in the conference in three-point shots attempted (382) and three-point shots made (125). Duke has made 78 more three-point shots, Georgia Tech has made 82 more three-point shots, and Florida State has made 131 more three-point shots.
Free-throw shooting
In comparison to the rest of the conference, Maryland fares even worse in free-throw shooting. Maryland’s free-throw shooting percentage (61) is last in the conference. Only Clemson (63) is even close to Maryland in free-throw shooting ineptitude. The next worst team is Virginia at 66%. The top three teams in the conference are Wake Forest at 71%, Duke at 75%, and North Carolina State at an unbelievable 79%. Maryland is fifth in free-throw attempts (615) but last in free throws made (373). Maryland has attempted 125 more free throws than N.C. State but has made 15 fewer free throws.
Because of its difficulty at the foul line, Maryland has found it difficult to compete with better-shooting teams. In its first loss of the season – to Gonzaga – Maryland led at the half 34-30, but, in the second half, Maryland couldn’t match or stop Gonzaga’s hot shooting – especially Gonzaga’s barrage of three-point shots – and lost the game 82-68. Gonzaga shot 48% overall and was 14 for 25 from the three-point line. Maryland shot 36% and was a woeful 4 for 20 on three-point shots. From the free-throw line, Gonzaga shot a mediocre 63%, but Maryland shot only 52%.
At Florida State, Maryland lost a close game because of poor shooting from the foul line. Maryland was 10 for 18 while Florida State was 24 for 33. Maryland was outscored from the foul line by 14 points in a game it lost by 4.
Problems in all areas
In its 81-71 loss at Georgia Tech, poor field goal shooting, poor three-point shooting, and poor free-throw shooting all cost Maryland a game it could have won. In field goal percentage, Maryland was outshot 42% to 36%, and in free-throw percentage, Maryland was outshot 75% to 63%. But it was the difference in three-point shooting that really did Maryland in. Georgia Tech was 9 for 21. Maryland was 4 for 17.
When Maryland played Georgia Tech at home, Maryland wasn’t even able to make the game close because of its dismal shooting. Maryland was down by four at the half and continued to be outplayed in the second half to lose by 11, 75-64. While Georgia Tech was shooting 51% overall and 45% from the three-point line, Maryland was shooting 32% overall and was a miserable 3 for 20 from the three-point line.
In its home loss to N.C. State, Maryland actually had a higher field goal percentage than N.C. State (48% versus 47%), but again Maryland’s ineptness from the three-point line and the free-throw line resulted in an 81-69 loss.
From the three-point arc, Maryland was 2 for 14 while N.C. State was 10 for 19. The difference in free-throw shooting was an embarrassment. N.C. State was 23 for 25. Maryland was 9 for 18.
At Duke, Maryland’s poor shooting resulted in a humiliating defeat that was far worse than the 86-63 score would indicate. Maryland was down by 17 at the half, and it’s hardly likely that Duke went all-out in the second half. Duke didn’t crush Maryland with a barrage of three-point shots – Duke was only 9 for 23 from the three-point line – but Duke did shoot 50% from the field and 79% from the free-throw line. Maryland was characteristically poor from both the free-throw line (52%) and the field (37%). Maryland seemed incapable of getting back on defense or stopping Duke from getting open shots both inside and outside.
In another embarrassing (and not particularly close) loss at home to Wake Forest, Maryland was again unable to stop the barrage of three-point shots that gave Wake Forest a 46-34 halftime lead and a 91-83 win. While Maryland shot as well as Wake from the field and the free-throw line, the difference in three-point shooting made it almost impossible for Maryland to stay with Wake. Wake made 13 of 23 three-point shots. Maryland was 3 of 14.
Rebounding
According to the statistics, Maryland is the leading rebounding team in the conference, but one wonders if Maryland was able to inflate those numbers against weak opponents because Maryland has lost several games because of poor rebounding.
In Maryland’s loss at home to Duke (by a somewhat respectable score of 68-60), Maryland was a little lucky that Duke didn’t have an especially good shooting night. In fact Maryland outshot Duke 42% to 34%. But Duke was able to overcome its poor night of shooting by grabbing 21 offenseive rebounds and outrebounding Maryland 44-30. Because of the rebounding difference, Duke was able to take 12 more shots than Maryland. If Maryland had rebounded decently, it would almost certainly have won the game.
In Maryland’s loss at Wake Forest, Maryland blew a 10-point halftime lead and lost by 8, 93-85. Maryland uncharacterically shot well from the field, the three-point line, and the free-throw line, but Maryland was badly outrebounded, 37-26.
Maryland’s defense put forth a miserable effort against North Carolina in Chapel Hill. Maryland again was badly outshot from the both the field and the free-throw line. North Carolina shot 55% from the field and 72% from the free-throw line. Maryland’s numbers were 39% and 67%. And while North Carolina didn’t shoot particularly well (5 for 14) from the three-point line, Maryland again shot miserably – 6 for 21. But Maryland still might have won the game had it rebounded respectably. North Carolina outrebounded Maryland 47-32.
It has already been noted that, in its home loss to Wake Forest, Maryland was unable to score or stop Wake Forest from scoring from the three-point line, but Maryland still might have won the game had it not been outrebounded 37-23.
A lack of hustle?
There may not be much Maryland can do about its own poor shooting, but the fact that Maryland’s opponents often have high shooting percentages – especially from the three-point line – and the fact that Maryland has been badly outrebounded in some of its losses suggest that Maryland isn’t hustling on defense. Maryland’s defenders are often out of position, and it doesn’t appear that Maryland’s players help out much on defense. Once an opposing player beats his Maryland defender, he seems to have an open shot.
